Between 2026 and 2030 Vietnam’s rattan furniture sector is likely to expand — driven by strong global demand for sustainable décor, deeper integration with international value chains, and government support for wood-and-non-timber export industries — but growth will be shaped by macro risks (trade friction, slower global growth), raw-material and sustainability constraints, and the sector’s ability to upgrade design, quality control and branding. Under three plausible scenarios (conservative, base, optimistic), rattan exports could reach roughly $875M–$1.30B by 2030 (from a 2023 baseline of about $733M for rattan/bamboo/related products). Vietnam Agriculture+1

Why 2026–2030 matters

The global furniture market is shifting toward eco-materials, creating tailwinds for rattan products that are renewable and biodegradable.
Vietnam’s broader furniture and wood sector is scaling fast — national targets and investment aim to expand exports through 2030 — so rattan can benefit from improved logistics, standards and market access. Mordor Intelligence+1

Key drivers (positive forces)

Sustained global demand for sustainable furniture Consumers and commercial buyers (hotels, resorts, boutique retailers) continue moving toward natural-material, low-carbon interiors — a structural advantage for quality rattan pieces.
Market and trade access Vietnam’s network of FTAs and improved export facilitation gives rattan makers easier access to EU, Japan, Australia and other markets. Vietnam’s overall wooden-products export capacity is also rising, which helps distribution and B2B linkages. Mordor Intelligence+1
Upgrading in design and production Greater collaboration with professional designers, uptake of finishing/ preservation technologies, and more firms moving from cottage workshops to factory-style operations will raise unit value and appeal to mid-to-high-end buyers.
Institutional support & branding Government programmes (industry roadmaps, OCOP, export promotion) and private initiatives help producers meet export standards, pursue sustainability certification, and market products overseas. TTWTO VCCI+1

Headwinds & constraints (risks to growth)

Macro and trade risks — A weaker global economy, or trade actions (e.g., tariffs or stricter rules in key markets), can dent demand and raise costs. Recent trade frictions and downward GDP growth revisions are reminders that export growth is not certain. Reuters
Raw material sustainability and supply — Much rattan is still wild-harvested; without expanded cultivation and better forest management, supply volatility and certification hurdles could limit growth.
Competition and substitution — Cheaper synthetic “rattan” alternatives and competing production from other countries could pressure prices unless Vietnam competes on design, quality and sustainability.
Standards & scaling — Small workshops need investment in treatment, pest control, and durable finishing to meet strict import rules in some markets.

Quantitative outlook (scenarios for rattan exports, baseline = $733M in 2023–24)

Using the 2023/24 export-level for the rattan/bamboo group as a starting point (~$733M), here are three scenario trajectories to 2030:

Conservative (CAGR ≈ 3%) — Slow recovery from trade shocks, domestic supply constraints: → 2030 ≈ $875M.
Base (CAGR ≈ 6%) — Continued demand, steady upgrading, policy support: → 2030 ≈ $1.04B.
Optimistic (CAGR ≈ 10%) — Rapid design-led value capture, large new contracts (hotels/retail), strong sustainability certification: → 2030 ≈ $1.30B.

(These scenario figures are illustrative projections to show scale and sensitivity; they combine sector trends with recent export baselines for rattan/bamboo products.) Vietnam Agriculture+1

What success looks like (2026–2030)

If Vietnam executes well across value-chain upgrades, the sector will show:

Higher average export price per unit through design and finishing (moving from commodity basketry to designer furniture).
A shift of production toward certified sustainable sourcing and traceable supply chains, easing market access to premium buyers.
Growth in B2B channels (hotel/resort fit-outs, international retailers) as well as direct-to-consumer e-commerce.
Increased share of wood-industry export value: Vietnam’s wood sector aims to expand overall exports into the high-teens of billions by 2030, and rattan can capture a rising share if product mix is upgraded. Vietnam Briefing+1

Recommended priorities for industry stakeholders (practical steps)

Scale sustainable rattan cultivation — move from wild harvests to managed plantations and community forestry schemes to secure supply and meet certification standards.
Professionalise finishing & QC — invest in durable finishing, insect treatment, packaging and testing to meet EU/US/Japan buyer requirements.
Design & branding push — partnerships between craft villages and contemporary designers, plus stronger digital marketing and participation at major trade fairs.
Targeted market diversification — deepen presence in EU/UK (EVFTA benefits), Japan/Australia, and boutique U.S. channels less exposed to commoditised competition. Mordor Intelligence+1
Cluster & SME finance support — help small producers aggregate orders, access low-cost finance for equipment, and join cooperatives for consistent quality and scale.

From 2026–2030 Vietnam’s rattan furniture sector is well placed to grow — potentially moving from a sizeable handicraft export niche to a higher-value, design-led export industry. The scale of that growth will depend on how quickly the sector (1) secures sustainable raw materials, (2) upgrades quality and design to capture higher margins, and (3) navigates macro and trade risks. With targeted public and private investment, a base-case doubling of value in the coming half-decade is feasible; without it, growth will still occur but at a more modest pace.